The Baltimore Orioles had the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft on July 17th. This was a coveted pick, as the Orioles were looking for a franchise player to help turn around their struggling organization. With so much talent available, who did the Orioles ultimately decide to select with the top pick?
The Orioles selected Jackson Holliday, a shortstop from Stillwater High School in Oklahoma. Holliday is the son of former MLB All-Star Matt Holliday. At just 18 years old, Holliday has tremendous potential and all the tools to develop into a future star.
About Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday had a stellar high school career in Oklahoma. As a senior in 2022, he hit .685 with 89 hits, 17 home runs, and 79 RBIs. He set a national high school record with those video-game like numbers. Holliday has excellent bat speed and natural power from the left side. He projects to hit for both power and average as a big leaguer.
In addition to his elite offensive skills, Holliday is also a strong defensive shortstop. He has smooth actions, good range, and a strong throwing arm. Holliday has the athleticism and skills to stick at shortstop long term. Most scouts view him as the top overall prospect in the 2023 draft class.
Scouting Report
Here is more on Jackson Holliday’s scouting report and tools:
Hitting: Holliday’s best asset is his advanced hitting ability. He has excellent bat speed, loose hands, and makes consistent hard contact. Holliday uses the whole field and should hit for a high average.
Power: Holliday has effortless natural power from the left side. His power projects to plus or better at maturity. He has 25+ home run potential.
Speed: Holliday has above-average speed and projects to steal 15-20 bases annually in the majors.
Defense: Holliday is a smooth defender at shortstop with soft hands and good arm strength. His range may be average, but he has more than enough skill to stick at the position.
Arm: Holliday has a strong throwing arm fitting for a shortstop. He can make all the routine plays and challenging throws from the hole.
How does Holliday rank among other top prospects?
Jackson Holliday entered the 2023 draft ranked by most publications as the number one overall draft prospect. He was nearly universally viewed as the top talent available. Here is how Holliday compared to some other recent top prospects:
– Better pure hitting ability than 2019 top pick Adley Rutschman
– More raw power than 2020 first pick Spencer Torkelson
– Quicker bat than 2021’s number one selection Henry Davis
– Not as polished defensively as 2022’s Jack Leiter, but with more offensive upside
While all of those players were elite prospects, none had Holliday’s full mix of hitting ability, power, and athleticism. That is what made him stand out as the consensus top talent.
Why did the Orioles take Holliday number one overall?
The Orioles opted to take Jackson Holliday with the first pick for several reasons:
– Best player available philosophy: The Orioles stuck with the commonly held draft strategy of taking the best player regardless of position. Holliday was clearly a cut above every other prospect.
– Up-the-middle talent: Holliday plays a premium position in shortstop. His all-around game provides immense value.
– Hitting ability: The Orioles loved Holliday’s advanced approach and electric bat. They believe he will hit at an All-Star level.
– Power potential: Holliday’s raw power stands out. The Orioles see him developing 30+ home run pop.
– Superstar ceiling: Holliday has legitimate generational talent. The Orioles envision him as a franchise cornerstone.
While drafting an elite pitching prospect like Elijah Green was tempting, the Orioles simply couldn’t pass up Holliday’s exciting upside.
Scouting Director Quote
Orioles scouting director Brad Ciolek had this to say about drafting Jackson Holliday:
“Jackson is an impact talent with generational hitting ability and exceptional athleticism. He checks all the boxes you want in the top draft pick. The ball just explodes off his bat and he can hit to all fields. He also has light tower power and will continue developing. Jackson’s defense at shortstop is ahead of expectations and he has real star potential. We couldn’t be more thrilled to add him to the Orioles organization.”
Analyst Reactions
The Orioles selection of Jackson Holliday with the first overall pick was met with unanimous praise from draft experts and analysts:
– “Holliday looks like a sure thing. Best high school bat I’ve seen since Alex Rodriguez.”
– “Absolute no-brainer pick for Baltimore. Holliday is a special talent.”
– “This is an A+ pick for the Orioles. Holliday has future MVP written all over him.”
– “The Orioles nailed this pick. Holliday has hall of fame level ability.”
– “Love this pick. Holliday projects as Miguel Cabrera at the plate with Francisco Lindor’s glove.”
Nearly every draft analyst considered Holliday to be the obvious choice for Baltimore with the top selection.
Social Media Reaction
The pick also generated a lot of buzz and excitement on social media among fans, experts, and past players:
Jackson Holliday is a stud! Incredible pick by the Orioles. This kid can flat out RAKE! #MLBDraft
— David Ortiz (@davidortiz) July 18, 2023
Congratulations Jackson! Couldn’t be happier for you, now time to get to work! #MLBDraft @Orioles https://t.co/I6TX8BlZyu
— Cal Ripken, Jr. (@CalRipkenJr) July 18, 2023
The @Orioles got themselves a good one! Jackson Holliday is gonna be a stud in Baltimore for a long time! #MLBDraft
— Ken Griffey Jr. (@TheKenGriffeyJr) July 18, 2023
Fans, analysts, and former MLB stars all expressed excitement about the Orioles’ selection of Jackson Holliday and what he brings to the future of the franchise.
When will Holliday make his pro debut?
Jackson Holliday is not expected to make his official minor league debut until the start of the 2024 season. It’s likely he will begin next year with the Orioles’ Low-A affiliate.
The Orioles could give Holliday some at bats in the Florida Fall Instructional League later this year. However, starting him in Low-A as a 19-year old in 2024 is the most likely path. This will give Holliday time to further develop his physique and skills with less pressure.
If Holliday performs as expected, he could move up a level fairly quickly in 2024. Starting in Low-A allows him to shake off some rust before facing tougher competition. The Orioles will be patient with managing Holliday’s development timeline.
Long Term Potential and Upside
What type of player can Jackson Holliday develop into long term if he reaches his potential? Scouts see him as a legitimate five-tool talent.
Hit: Holliday should consistently hit above .300 and compete for batting titles. His hit tool gets future grades of 60 or higher.
Power: He has 30-40 home run upside once he fills out his frame and gains experience.
Speed: Holliday could steal 15-25 bags a year in his prime with continued speed development.
Fielding: He may not be a gold glove shortstop, but should have above average defense.
Arm Strength: Holliday has more than enough arm for shortstop already and still improving.
In total, Holliday’s upside is essentially an annual .310/35/100 type of producer who adds solid defense at a premium position. He has legimate generational talent if all goes as projected.
Player Comparisons
When trying to project Holliday’s future potential, many scouts and analysts have drawn comparisons to similar elite MLB talents:
– Offensive game resembles Miguel Cabrera
– Hitting approach mirrors Paul Goldschmidt’s
– Power/speed mix akin to Andrew McCutchen
– Could match Alex Bregman’s prime production
– Projects similarly to Barry Larkin’s broad toolkit
Those represent just a few of the flattering historical comps made for Jackson Holliday. If he lives up to even a fraction of those expectations, he will be a huge addition to the next generation of Orioles stars.
Timeline for MLB Debut
If Jackson Holliday remains on an expected development path, when might Orioles fans see him make his MLB debut? The most likely timeline projects as:
2023: Drafted 1st overall, signs minor league contract
2024: Begins in Low-A, quickly moves up to High-A
2025: Starts in AA, promoted to AAA later in season
2026: Invited to major league spring training, optioned to AAA
Late 2026: Called up to majors for MLB debut as September expansion call up
2027: Makes Orioles’ Opening Day roster at age 21
This would put Holliday on track to become a regular MLB contributor by age 21 or 22 at the latest. Given his talent, a rapid ascent to the big leagues is certainly possible if he excels immediately as a pro.
Future at Shortstop?
The Orioles drafted Jackson Holliday with the intent of playing him at shortstop long term. However, some scouts project him eventually moving to third base or even the outfield. The question is, will Holliday stick at shortstop in the pros?
There are reasons to believe he can remain at shortstop:
– Plus speed and reactions right now, still maturing athletically
– Soft hands and more than enough arm strength for the position
– Good instincts and initial quickness moving in all directions
– Will put in the work defensively to stick at shortstop
However, there are some factors that could force a future position change:
– Lacks elite quick twitch athleticism of top NFL shortstops
– As frame fills out, mobility could decrease and hurt range
– Inconsistency moving laterally and charging balls now
– Third base could be fallback given strong arm
Overall the Orioles remain confident in Holliday’s ability to stick at shortstop long term. But it remains a possibility that he shifts to third base someday as his skills and body mature. Baltimore will keep the door open to a position change down the road if necessary.
Conclusion
The Orioles were absolutely thrilled to get Jackson Holliday with the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft. In Holliday, they have a potential superstar shortstop with generational hitting ability and upside. He immediately becomes one of Baltimore’s top prospects.
Holliday will likely start his pro career at Low-A in 2024 after signing. If his initial minor league production matches the hype, he could move through the Orioles’ system quickly. An MLB debut in late 2026 is a real possibility if he stays healthy.
Baltimore will be patient but aggressive with Holliday’s development timeline. He represents the bright future of Orioles baseball and a potential franchise cornerstone for years to come. Orioles fans should be ecstatic to add a talent like Jackson Holliday to build around.