Pokemon Shield is one of the latest installments in the popular Pokemon video game franchise developed by Game Freak and published by Nintendo and The Pokemon Company. In Pokemon Shield, players explore the Galar region and try to complete the Pokedex by catching various Pokemon. One way to obtain rare fossil Pokemon is by finding fossilized parts and restoring them at fossil restoration sites around the Galar region. This raises an interesting question for many players – what are the chances of finding and restoring the fossilized bird Pokemon Arctovish in Pokemon Shield?
How Fossils Work in Pokemon Shield
There are several fossil Pokemon that can be obtained in Pokemon Shield by collecting fossilized parts:
- Dracozolt – Fossilized Bird and Fossilized Drake combinations
- Arctozolt – Fossilized Bird and Fossilized Dino combinations
- Dracovish – Fossilized Fish and Fossilized Drake combinations
- Arctovish – Fossilized Fish and Fossilized Dino combinations
To get one of these Pokemon, the player must first find the corresponding fossilized parts randomly scattered in the overworld. The player can only possess one of each fossil part at a time. Once the player has both required parts, they can be restored into a Pokemon at fossil restoration centers.
For example, to get Arctovish, the player needs to find the Fossilized Fish and Fossilized Dino items. The player then takes these fossils to a restoration center where the ancient Pokemon is resurrected.
Fossil Rarity
All four fossil parts appear to have the same rarity and equal chances of being discovered in random encounters. However, the Fossilized Drake and Fossilized Fish seem slightly more common based on community reports. Still, the difference is fairly negligible.
Overall, fossils are designed to be rare finds in Pokemon Shield. Players will likely spend hours scouring the wilderness before collecting even one part. This rarity makes completing the fossil Pokemon a difficult and exciting challenge.
Chances of Finding Specific Fossils
Since each fossil part has approximately the same rarity, the chances of finding any specific part are evenly distributed:
- Fossilized Bird – 25% chance
- Fossilized Drake – 25% chance
- Fossilized Fish – 25% chance
- Fossilized Dino – 25% chance
This means that across all fossils found, on average:
- 1 in 4 will be Fossilized Bird
- 1 in 4 will be Fossilized Drake
- 1 in 4 will be Fossilized Fish
- 1 in 4 will be Fossilized Dino
So while fossils overall are rare, the distribution of fossil types is expected to be fairly even once players start accumulating multiple parts.
Chances of Getting Arctovish
Since getting Arctovish requires having both the Fossilized Fish and Fossilized Dino parts, the overall probability is a combination of these two separate probabilities:
- 25% chance of finding Fossilized Fish
- 25% chance of finding Fossilized Dino
Using probability rules, the chance of finding both fossils randomly is:
0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625
This equals a 6.25% chance of getting both parts required for Arctovish.
In other words, on average across all fossil combinations acquired, roughly 1 in 16 will contain both fossils needed to restore Arctovish.
Estimating Time to Get Arctovish
While the probability gives us expected ratios, it does not tell us how long it will actually take to get Arctovish in gameplay. Some further estimates and assumptions are needed:
- Let’s assume the average time between finding any two fossils is 1 hour based on community reports.
- We previously determined there is a 6.25% chance of any two fossils being the ones needed for Arctovish.
- So on average, it will take 100/6.25 = 16 hours of fossil hunting to acquire the parts.
Therefore, the estimated average time required to find the fossils needed for Arctovish is approximately 16 hours. Of course, luck plays a major factor, and it could take much less or much more time depending on the RNG. But based on probability, 16 hours is a reasonable estimate.
Maximizing Chances
Here are some tips to optimize the fossil hunt for Arctovish:
- Search in all diglett hole spots – these have higher fossil spawn rates.
- Complete other Pokemon tasks so more overworld item spawns appear.
- Use Pokemon with Compound Eyes ability to increase hold item rates.
- Get the digging duo brothers to find extra fossils for you.
- Trade fossils with other players if you have duplicates.
Following these methods, while still subject to luck, can significantly cut down the time required to get all the parts for Arctovish.
Conclusion
Based on the evidence:
- All four fossil types in Pokemon Shield have roughly a 25% chance of being discovered.
- Getting both Fish and Dino fossils required for Arctovish has a probability around 6.25%.
- So the estimated time to acquire Arctovish is approximately 16 hours on average.
- Optimizing fossil hunting can reduce this, but ultimately luck plays a big role.
While elusive, with patience and perseverance, players should eventually be able to add this icy aquatic fossil Pokemon to their team! Let the great fossil hunt begin!