The birth rate is the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population. Over the past few decades, birth rates have been steadily declining in most developed countries. There are several potential factors that may be contributing to this trend, including economic uncertainty, women joining the workforce, improved access to contraception, couples choosing to have fewer or no children, and more women delaying marriage and childbearing.
What are the current birth rate trends?
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the general fertility rate in the United States hit a record low in 2020, falling 4% from 2019 to about 56 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44. This marks the sixth consecutive year that the U.S. birth rate has declined after an increase in 2014, and the lowest rate since the government started tracking this data over a century ago.
Similar declining trends have been observed in other developed countries. According to Statistics Canada, the total fertility rate dropped to 1.47 births per woman in 2020, down from 1.57 in 2019 and well below the replacement level of 2.1. Many European countries including Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Poland, and Hungary have very low fertility rates between 1.2 to 1.4 births per woman. Japan has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, at just 1.36 births per woman.
Country | Birth Rate (births per 1,000 population) |
---|---|
United States | 11.4 |
Canada | 10.2 |
Australia | 12.4 |
United Kingdom | 11.1 |
France | 11.2 |
Germany | 9.1 |
Italy | 7.8 |
Spain | 7.8 |
Japan | 7.3 |
Why is the birth rate going down?
There are many interrelated socioeconomic factors that help explain the declining birth rates across developed countries:
Women having children later in life
Women today are delaying marriage and childbearing to pursue higher education and establish careers. The average age of first-time mothers in the U.S. has increased from 21 years in 1972 to 26 years in 2019. Older women tend to have fewer babies over their reproductive lifetimes.
Increased access to contraception
Effective contraception allows women and couples to prevent unwanted pregnancies and control family size. Increased use of long-acting reversible contraceptives like IUDs and implants has led to a reduction in unintended pregnancies.
Delayed marriage
People are staying single longer. The U.S. marriage rate has dropped from 8.2 per 1,000 population in year 2000 to only 6.5 in 2018. Delaying or forgoing marriage reduces births outside of marriage.
Economic uncertainty and women in the workforce
Recessions, high unemployment rates, stagnant wages, student debt, and rising housing costs make young adults postpone or rethink having children. More women working to establish careers also play a role.
High cost of raising children
The cost of healthcare, childcare, education, housing, and other expenses make having children less affordable for many families. Especially in developed nations, the economic cost of raising children is incredibly high.
Social trends and attitudes
Couples today are more open to being child-free. Young adults value travel and experiences over settling down. Environmental concerns over population and consumption growth may also discourage childbearing.
Government policy
Countries worried about low birth rates have implemented pro-natalist policies like paid parental leave, childcare subsidies, tax incentives and even monthly allowances. But the impact on fertility has been minimal so far.
How does birth rate vary by region?
There are clear regional variations in birth rates across the world:
Developed countries
Birth rates are consistently low in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Japan, and Europe, ranging between 9 to 13 live births per year per 1,000 people. Declining birth rates are a policy concern in many developed nations.
Developing countries
Birth rates remain high in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East, ranging from about 18 to 40 live births per year per 1,000 people. Poverty, limited access to contraception, and cultural factors sustain high fertility.
China
China had a one-child policy from 1979 to 2015, which sharply curbed birth rates. China’s birth rate stands at just 10 births per 1,000 people. The ending of this policy has so far failed to raise the birth rate.
India
India has seen a dramatic fall in birth rates. From 41.2 births per 1,000 in 1960, India’s birth rate has declined to 18.6 births in 2020. Rising incomes, expanding female education and access to family planning have played key roles.
Region | Birth rate (per 1,000 population) |
---|---|
Sub-Saharan Africa | 35 |
South Asia | 22 |
Middle East and North Africa | 18 |
East Asia and Pacific | 11 |
Europe and Central Asia | 10 |
North America | 11 |
What is the population outlook?
Declining birth rates coupled with rising life expectancies are reshaping the world’s demographic profile:
Shrinking young populations
The number of children under age 5 is projected to fall globally, from 680 million in 2017 to 401 million by 2100, per a Lancet study. Developed countries will see the youth population shrink the most.
Growth of aging population
The share of people aged 65+ will expand from 9% in 2019 to 16% by 2050, as per United Nations data. Ageing populations are a major policy concern in countries like Japan.
Peak population
The world population is expected to reach about 9.7 billion in 2060s, and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100, as per UN projections. Africa will account for over 50% of global population growth upto 2050.
Labor shortages
A smaller working-age population means greater competition for workers. Productivity growth may offset but economies will need policies to integrate seniors in the workforce.
New family structures
As fertility falls, single-person households may become more common. Same-sex marriages and non-traditional families will also rise with changing social norms.
Pensions and healthcare strain
With longer life spans and fewer workers per retiree, pay-as-you-go pension systems will come under financial pressure. Healthcare costs will rise substantially.
Innovation in automation
To counter shrinking workforces, businesses and governments will invest more in technologies like robotics, AI and automation to maintain productivity.
Will policies reverse declining birth rates?
Governments concerned about the impacts of low fertility have introduced various pro-natalist policies, with mixed results so far:
Cash incentives
Birth grants, tax deductions per child, monthly child allowances, and other financial incentives aim to offset the costs of raising children. But such measures only seem to temporarily boost birth rates.
Better childcare support
Affordable, accessible childcare makes it easier for new parents to work and have more kids. Quebec’s childcare program increased fertility rates in the province.
Generous parental leave
Most developed economies mandate at least 3 months of paid maternity leave. Longer paid parental leaves, like Germany’s 14 months, encourage couples to have more kids.
Workplace flexibility
Options like remote work, part-time schedules, and flexible hours allow parents to better balance families with careers, and promote childbearing.
Reducing economic uncertainty
Tackling issues that make young adults delay or forgo parenthood, like student debt burdens, high unemployment and housing costs, could encourage family formation.
Promoting gender equity
Boosting female workforce participation and closing gender pay gaps gives women greater agency over childbearing decisions.
Immigration
Migrants can help fill labor shortages and offset effects of low fertility. But cultural integration challenges and political resistance have limited its impact.
Conclusion
In summary, birth rates have steadily declined in developed countries and are now falling in the developing world due to major societal shifts around women’s education and employment, availability of contraception, high costs of raising children, and changing attitudes toward family size and structure. This decline in fertility, combined with rising life expectancy, will reshape populations and create new economic and social challenges that future generations will need to adapt to. While some governments have tried to increase birth rates through pro-natalist policies, it remains to be seen whether such interventions can reverse broader cultural trends toward lower fertility in developed nations. Going forward, societies will need to find solutions to sustain economic growth and support aging populations with fewer workers. The 21st century promises to bring creative destruction in how we perceive and manage population change.